Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and the status of the Nagorno-Karabakh region

(This is the first article of a two-part series covering the conflict from historical and international law perspectives)

On 10 November 2020, Armenia and Azerbaijan entered a truce after six weeks of intense fighting. Hostilities broke out on 27 September 2020, when both countries reported that the other side had fired the first shots. The fighting was the most violent the region has experienced since the 1990s, involving heavy artillery, rockets and drones, and has led to the death of thousands and the displacement of around 100,000 people. 

At the centre of the conflict lies the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh (or Artsakh in the Armenian Language) region, a landlocked area of 4,400 square kilometres, as well as other occupied regions that together make up roughly a fifth of Azerbaijan’s territory. There are no official records about the demographics of Nagorno-Karabakh, yet it is believed that around 95% of the population is ethnically Armenian. While Armenians are pre-dominantly Christians speaking an Indo-European language, Azeris are a Muslim Turkic ethnic group. However, what truly separates these two nations is not religion, language or ethnic background, but their mutually exclusive political narratives. 

Background to the Conflict and International Crimes committed 

According to the Center for Preventive Action’s Global Conflict Tracker, the roots of the present conflict dynamics can be traced back to 1988 when the regional parliament of Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast in the former Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR) decided to join Armenia. However, this is by far not the whole story. To fully understand the conflict about the mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a glance into history is necessary. Regional tensions go back centuries, when both territories were still divided between the Ottoman Empire and the Persians. In 1813, Nagorno-Karabakh was placed under the rule of the Russians, together with the rest of modern-day ‘Azerbaijan’. Both populations remained scattered between the Ottoman (Armenians), Russian (Armenians and Azeris) and Persian (Azeris) control, until the fall of the Ottoman Empire. In 1918, the non-Muslim Armenians, who had suffered a genocide of an estimated 1.5 million during Turkish rule, then turned against the local Muslim Azeris, which led to massacres that were brutally reciprocated by the Azeris.

No official number of victims exists, but the death toll ranges in the tens of thousands. Furthermore, the Soviet Regime relocated Christians, mostly Armenians, to Azerbaijani regions and deported Muslims from those areas. This further increased Azeri hate towards Armenians and led to the impression that Armenians were “opportunistic aggressors” who expanded their economic and political control. Finally, both countries found themselves as Soviet Socialist Republics within the Soviet Union. Stalin placed Nagorno-Karabakh as an autonomous region with its own regional parliament within the borders of Azerbaijan SSR, thereby upsetting both sides; Armenia, because they did not gain control over the region and Azerbaijan, because the region retained separate rights. 

For some time, the Soviet Union managed to keep the peace, but when the parliament of Nagorno-Karabakh voted to join Armenia in 1988, violence broke out again. Both Armenian and Azeri forces tried to take control of the region. The Soviet leadership decided to move ethnic Armenians from Azerbaijan and ethnic Azeris from Armenia to their respective countries. However, clashes between the groups intensified and ultimately resulted in a mass exodus and destruction on both sides. After the Soviet Union finally fell apart, both Armenia and Azerbaijan declared their independence in 1991. Within a few weeks, Nagorno-Karabakh also declared its independence. Once again, the area spiralled into violence. By 1992, the hostilities between Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh, supported by Armenia, had developed into a full-scale war, reaching beyond the disputed Nagorno Karabakh region. In an extensive report, Human Rights Watch documented the violations of the Geneva Conventions and International Humanitarian Law (IHL) committed by all parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from 1993 to 1994. These crimes included forced displacement, looting and burning of civilian homes, taking of hostages and the likely killing of prisoner of wars. Overall, an estimated 25,000 have been killed, 300,000 Armenians left Azerbaijan, and at least 800,000 refugees and internally displaced people sought protection in Azerbaijan due to the conflict in the 1990s. 

The fighting ended in a ceasefire brokered by Russia in 1994. Since this armistice did not end the conflict, the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE) established the Minsk Group in the same year, mandated to create the appropriate framework for a permanent peace agreement. With the cessation of hostilities and the conclusion of the ceasefire in 1994, Nagorno-Karabakh and other territories were left under the control of Armenia and they have been until November 2020. During this time, Armenia undertook resettlement of Armenians to Nagorno-Karabakh. Despite the ceasefire, military clashes continued to occur occasionally.

This overview already demonstrates how the grievances suffered on both sides complicate the conflict, without even portraying the interest of other global players in the region, like Russia, Turkey or Western oil companies. Of all the frozen conflicts the collapse of the Soviet Union has produced, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has experienced the highest number of causalities and the largest amount of violence. 

In the most recent attacks in October 2020, Human Rights Watch reported the widespread use of banned cluster munitions in residential areas in Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan, and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights released a statement expressing concerns about the use of cluster munitions by both parties. Moreover, numerous civilians have been killed or injured in the armed clashes. This shows that important rules of IHL, namely distinguishing between combatants and civilians at all times and not carrying out indiscriminate attacks, have been violated by all parties to the conflict. As a result, over 70,000 people – half of the Nagorno-Karabakh population – have left their homes and found refuge in Armenia. Providing shelter and help to the victims of the conflict naturally becomes more difficult amidst the Covid-19 pandemic. 

Positions of the Conflict Parties 

Nagorno Karabakh Republic

On 2 September 1991, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous District and Shahumian Regional councils proclaimed the Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR), based on the 1990 USSR Law on Procedure for Resolving Questions Connected with a Union Republic’s Secession from the Soviet Union. Following a referendum, the state announced its independence in January 1992. The country has a defined population, territory, and its own government. Additionally, the NKR has representative offices in many states, including the US, France, UK, Russia, Australia and hence possesses the capacity to enter in relation with other states. According to the Montevideo Convention, these four elements are sufficient to establish a state under international law. The political existence of a state is independent of recognition by other states.

As a result, the NKR sees itself as an independent country, based on its declarations, the USSR law, its right to self-determination and the Montevideo Convention. However, not a single UN member state, not even Armenia, or any multilateral organization has formally recognized the NKR. Furthermore, the de facto authorities rely heavily on Armenia’s political, economic, and security support.

Azerbaijan

The official description of the conflict as “the aggression of Armenia against Azerbaijan” could not be more straightforward. The region of Karabakh was part of different Azerbaijani states, before it all became part of the Russian Empire. Azerbaijan allegedly respected the autonomy of the region, for example by using Armenian as the official language in all state branches, as well as in the media. Apparently, the high living standard in Nagorno-Karabakh “increased feelings of ethnic superiority and separatist tendencies of Armenians” resulting in the separation movements. 

Accordingly, the declared independence of NKR is considered to be illegal. The population of Nagorno-Karabakh had no right to secession, instead, the territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan must be respected. Armenia occupied Azerbaijan’s territory, thereby violating Azerbaijan’s international rights. In light of the most recent developments, the President of Azerbaijan said that they are “restoring historical justice […] because Nagorno-Karabakh is an ancient and historical land of Azerbaijan” and that they have liberated the land from occupiers. 

Armenia

The Armenian position, as presented by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is that Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) is an “integral part of historic Armenia”. In the centuries B.C. the region was a part of Greater Armenia before falling under Persian control. Throughout history, Nagorno-Karabakh remained Armenian with a semi-independent status and was invaded by Azerbaijan only in 1918. The disputed status of Nagorno-Karabakh was eventually decided by Stalin who ignored the declaration of Nagorno-Karabakh as being a part of Armenia and instead forcefully incorporated the region into Azerbaijan. During Azerbaijan’s soviet rule, the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh suffered discrimination, ethnic cleansing and destruction, and consequently continued their struggle for reunification with Armenia, which resulted in the declaration of independence in 1991. 

Hence, Armenia’s legal position is that it does not occupy Nagorno-Karabakh, but rather that it liberated the region and that the Republic of Nagorno Karabakh is an independent state. Following the ceasefire agreement in November 2020 and what is perceived as the “lost independence of the motherland”, the President of Armenia argued that the Karabakh issue has to be returned to the negotiation stage, and that “the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh will be determined by the OSCE Minsk Group”.