At a time when social unrest has reached unprecedented levels in Iran, the ruling regime remains fixated on proxy wars through groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. In a way, the sponsorship of Hamas is a calculated policy to distract from its own domestic challenges and mobilize public opinion for external issues.
It took a fresh crisis and the loss of thousands of lives in the Middle East for the global community to finally acknowledge a warning that the Iranian Resistance had sounded as far back as 1993: the new menace to global peace and security resides within the chambers of Islamic extremism, with its epicenter in Tehran.
The enduring tragedies across the region and the ongoing turmoil throughout the Middle East serve as a stark reminder that until the head of extremism in Tehran is decisively dealt with, the region and the world will remain bereft of peace and stability.
As the violent conflict between Israel and Hamas rages on, Iran’s role becomes critical in the prolonging Hamas’s survival. Hamas and Hezbollah have long survived on Iranian support as part of its strategy to expand its influence and counter rivals like Israel and Saudi Arabia. But its footprint all over the current crisis reveal the extent of Iran’s intervention in the Middle East.
According to many intelligence sources, Iran [at least] helped Hamas plan its major assault on Israel on October 7th that sparked the current war. Officers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) reportedly worked with Hamas since August [if not earlier] to coordinate the surprise land, air and sea attacks across Israel’s borders. Senior officials from Hamas and Hezbollah confirmed that the IRGC gave the green light for the offensive at a meeting in Beirut just days before the attack. This shows how deeply involved Iran was in orchestrating Hamas’s most significant infiltration of Israel since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Iran has also been steadily supplying Hamas with weapons and military training to empower its proxy forces. U.S. officials say that since the last major Israel-Gaza conflict in 2014, Iran has smuggled tens of thousands of rifles, machine guns, mortars and rockets into Gaza to replenish Hamas’s arsenal. The IRGC has reportedly provided Hamas with technical expertise to build a domestic rocket production capability and tunnel network. Just in 2022 alone, Iran transferred over $100 million to Hamas according to Israeli assessments.
Hezbollah, Iran’s chief proxy force in Lebanon, has also entered the fray against Israel at Tehran’s behest. According to Israeli military sources, Iran instructed Hezbollah to open a second front by firing rockets across the Israel-Lebanon border. This is intended to stretch Israel’s military resources and reduce pressure on Hamas in Gaza. Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, is reportedly preparing his group for a larger confrontation with Israel.
Beyond directly sponsoring Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran is trying to broaden the conflict through other regional proxies. Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq have been instructed to target U.S. and Israeli interests in those countries. There are concerns Iran may activate allies in Yemen as well. The Houthi rebels, who are fighting Saudi forces with Iranian supplies and guidance, could open another dangerous front for Israel by firing missiles across the Red Sea.
However, Iran is limited in how much it can escalate the war, as it tries to balance its ideological commitment to confronting Israel with pragmatism about its overreach.An All-out Iranian military intervention would risk triggering an overwhelming Israeli response, with likely backing from the U.S.
Iran’s clerical leaders seem to have settled for now on a strategy of limited attacks on Israel by proxies that give Iran plausible deniability and avoid direct attribution. They are gambling this calibrated pressure will eventually force Israel to relent in Gaza, while avoiding provoking an all-out war with Israel and regional isolation for Iran.
Domestic politics are also playing a major role in Tehran’s calculus. A larger number of Iranian people are already protesting economic hardship as well as repression under the authoritarian regime. Public anger has led to slogans like “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, I sacrifice my life for Iran” which underscore frustration with the regime’s foreign adventures when conditions at home are dire. The leaders in Tehran do not want to become mired in a major conflict with Israel that could further inflame Iranian opinion against them.
On October 10, Iranian regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei denied any involvement in the recent conflict in the Middle East.
It was clear to all observers that Khamenei was greatly concerned about his regime becoming involved in the war, especially as the fires of uprisings in 2022 continue to blaze across Iran. This goes parallel to advancing peace talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia that would have rendered an unprecedented regional front against Tehran’s interests throughout the region and isolated the mullahs’ regime like never before.
One can interpret Khamenei’s strategy to an octopus, with its head in Tehran and its arms and tentacles extending to various countries in the Middle East and even beyond. Meanwhile, inside Iran the regime’s senior officials have been voicing their support for the mullahs’ fueling of regional conflicts.
“On October 7th, the Palestinians decided that instead of dying everyday, they’d rather die once with dignity,” said Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the regime’s Majlis (parliament), on October 23.
“If we don’t support Gaza today, tomorrow we have to defend ourselves against phosphoric bombs targeting hospitals in our own cities,” said Hossein Amir-Abdollahian last week in an interview with Iranian state TV.
“The Resistance [terrorists] are capable today thanks to the Islamic Republic and the will to take action is there,” said IRGC deputy chief Ali Fadavi on October 22.
The Iranian regime’s commitment to eliminating Israel drives its provocation of the Israel-Hamas conflict. For the Iranian regime, confrontation with Israel is not motivated by self-defense, but rather a revolutionary worldview that rationalizes perpetual war against the Jewish state. This ideological extremism makes Iran a deterring force in any plausible rapprochement.
Iran’s strategy points out to that of a risky line, trying to inflict pain on Israel indirectly while preventing the Gaza war from spiraling into a regional conflagration. Its strategy is destabilizing the Middle East, but the costs of escalation may constrain how far Iran will go.
While Iran’s role in the current fighting is already substantial, its next moves could determine whether the violence spreads or not.
Iranian Resistance Leader Massoud Rajavi delivered a strong message on Monday calling on the West to end their conciliation of the Iranian regime. “Enough with appeasement, whitewashing, and inaction at the end of missile and arms sanctions on the religious fascism [Tehran], and relying on issuing mere statements. It is high time for the ‘trigger mechanism’ and reinstating the six United Nations Security Council resolution sanctions [against the Iranian regime],” he said. “The European Union and the United Kingdom need to immediately blacklist the IRGC. Providing time and opportunity will have a heavy toll for the region and global peace.”
Image: CNN