New York: Tensions between defacto government in Afghanistan and Pakistan continue to soar as India jumps into the foray to help Afghan government construct a hydroelectric project on Kunar River in eastern Afghanistan.
Since early 2023, Pakistani establishment and Taliban-led Afghan government have been reciprocating hostilities against each other over the issue of Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP) sanctuaries within Afghan territories. In an American-style self-defence intervention, Pakistan Airforce targeted some training camps of TTP within Afghanistan. This was considered an end to all negitiations and start of a new round of relationship between the once allies. The revengeful TTP since then has claimed to have hit key army installations and contingents within Pakistan and continue to remain hostile towards Pakistan army while Afghan government is not in a mood to cut ties with TTP either.
Latest surprise for the Pakistani establishment came when on December 18, a representative from the Taliban’s Water and Energy Ministry said that his government has completed survey and design of a hydroelectric dam Kunar River.
The Kunar River, spanning over a distance of 480 kilometres, starts in the Hindu Kush Mountains in northern Afghanistan. It converges into Kabul River and continues its course downstream into Pakistan. Afghan Minister, Matiullah Abid told a renowned international media outlet earlier this week that the commencement of the dam construction work on the Kunar River is contingent upon the availability of funding and that his government is exploring the ideas of seeking support from interesting parties. The minister cited the reasons for construction of a dam by saying that precipitation required to grow food has dropped by 60% in much of Afghanistan recently. The need for additional water infrastructure has been intensified by factors like as the fast growth of Kabul’s population, widespread severe drought, and the threat of climate change.
Jan Achakzai, the communications minister of Balochistan, a province in the southwest, issued a cautionary statement about the various outcomes of a situation, emphasizing the likelihood of heightened tensions and the possibility of a conflict. The Taliban’s choice to construct the dam would be seen as a hostile action by Pakistan, according to the provincial minister.
The longstanding partners have now broken up due to allegations that the Afghan extremist organization provided sanctuary to the terrorist group Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), who have been fighting an Islamabad-backed insurgencies (against Americans and Russians) within Afghanistan since late 70s.
Expelling hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees from Pakistan, closing important border crossings, and impeding Afghan transit goods in recent months are all examples of pressure methods that Pakistan is said to have employed to get the Taliban to cut connections with the TTP.
However, there is no legislative framework in place to resolve any water disputes between the two countries, and the politically complex terrain of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area is characterized by a complex web of ttransboundary rivers.
Work on the Shahtoot Dam is expected to begin shortly in the Chahar Asiab area of Kabul, on the Maidan, a tributary of the Kabul River. This is not surprising. The dam is estimated to cots abou US $ 236 million and has the capacity to store 146 million cubic meters of drinkable water, which is enough to irrigate 4,000 hectares of land and provide fresh drinking water to over 2 million people in Kabul. It will also provide water for the residents of Deh Sabz, a brand-new city on Kabul’s outskirts. Afghanistan is now at a point where it can start developing its economy and generating energy from hydropower, after decades of catastrophic conflicts.
Concerns that the new dam may change the Kabul River’s flow and diminish water flows into Pakistan, perhaps severely limiting the country’s future availability to water, are fuelling anxieties downstream in Pakistan over this ambitious construction.
The completion of the Shahtoot Dam and other planned dams might result in a 16 to 17 percent decrease in water flow, according to Pakistan’s ministry of water resources. The Shahtoot Dam, which is likely to by funded by Indian, has the distinct ability to inflame regional tensions in addition to cutting off water supplies to Pakistan. Interestingly, the infrastructure of Afghanistan has received substantial funding from India since 2011.
The use of waterways that transcend international borders is a source of contention between and even within nations. However, international organizations like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have established mechanisms for the settlement of disputes between states.
Although Pakistan and Afghanistan share the Kabul River, no water sharing agreement exists between the two countries. In the 1970s, Afghanistan and Iran signed a treaty regarding the Helmand River, but no such arrangement exists between Afghanistan and other Central Asian states.
As it runs eastward via Kabul and Jalalabad, finally into Pakistan, the Hindu Kush-born Kabul River receives heavy flows from the Kunar and a number of smaller rivers that rise in Pakistan’s Chitral area. After merging with the Swat and its branches in Pakistan, the Kabul eventually flows into the Indus near Attock—a city at the border of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhawa provicnes. About 25 million people in the watershed rely on the Kabul River for their livelihood, and that number is projected to rise to 37 million by 2050.
The Afghan government sees the building of these dams as essential since the majority of the rural population lacks access to safe drinking water, and just 5% of the population has better sanitation (with 1% of that number living in rural regions). In comparison to Pakistan’s massive power generation, Afghanistan’s meager 300 MW is just 2% of the total power mix.
In Afghanistan, only 28% of homes have access to electricity. Contrarily, in Charsada, this river supplies 85% of the irrigation water, in Peshawar, 80%, and in Nowshera, 47.5%. Millions more Pakistanis who live in and around the basin rely on this as their primary water supply for drinking as well. Located downstream, the Warsak Dam provides 250 MW of power to the Peshawar Valley. It is possible to decrease water flow into the Warsak canal by 8-11 percent by constructing additional dams upstream. Because it has the potential to cut off water supply to its northern regions and beyond, the Shahtoot dam is a major source of concern for Pakistan.
In response, Afghanistan asserts that no water will be diverted into Pakistan as a result of this. The water supply in eastern Afghanistan has been affected by Pakistan’s construction of many storage dams on the Chitral River. Neither side, however, is making enough of an effort to resolve these issues. Political experts on both sides of the border do not see any end in sight for this ongoing war of egos between the former allies. “They both know each other inside out, hence, strongly believe that they can settle some scores.” Some experts believe that inclusion of India in this mix is certainly not liked by Pakistani establishment but Taliban government is least bothered about such a support from Indian which helps a cash-starved country build some critical infrastructure.
Zeeshan Javaid is US based Pakistani journalist. He writes on issues related to foreign affairs, cross border conflicts, terrorism and extremism.. He can be reached at zeeshan.javaid9@gmail.com